Contents

Summary
1. Performance
   1.1 Top 10 Coins by Market Cap
   1.2 Returns by Timezone
   1.3 BTC Monthly Returns Matrix
   1.4 BTC and ETH monthly returns YTD
   1.5 BTC dominance
2. ETF Flows
   2.1 Aggregate BTC ETF Flows
   2.2 BTC ETF Flows in November
   2.3 BTC ETF Share by Product
3. Basis & Funding Rates
   3.1 CME Futures Basis (Monthly)
   3.2 CME Futures Basis
   3.3 OI-Weighted Funding APR
   3.4 Futures Basis
4. Volumes
   4.1 Total Derivatives Volume
5. Options
   5.1. BTC and ETH Put/Call Ratio
   5.2. Skew
   5.3. Risk Reversals
   5.4. Butterfly
   5.5. IV
   5.6. RV
   5.7. IV-RV
6. On-Chain
   6.1. Chain TVL Change
Appendix
Data Partners

Summary

Markets entered September on fragile footing. UK fiscal stress drove 30-year Gilts to levels last seen in 1998, while US yields climbed early in the month on trade friction and labour concerns. Trump pushed new tariffs on Brazil, India, and heavy trucks, alongside threats of 100% levies on China and India via the EU. Global politics weighed as France’s PM lost a confidence vote, NATO jets intercepted Russian drones over Poland, and Xi pressed the US for Taiwan concessions. Into mid-month, payrolls again disappointed, the Fed delivered a 25 bp cut as expected, and dot plots projected two more by year-end. The BOE paused, the BOJ held, and global central banks from Norway to the Riksbank moved toward easing. Powell and Miran struck a dovish tone, and by late September US equities and credit firmed, gold traded at record highs, and markets braced for a US government shutdown on 1 October.

Crypto traded choppy. BTC swung between $108k and $117k, finishing near $114k, while ETH faded from $4,600 mid-month to around $4,100 by quarter-end. Solana briefly touched $244 before retracing. Tron, BSC, and Solana again led on-chain activity (Figure 6.1). ETH underperformed BTC through the month, reversing August’s relative strength, while BTC dominance hit its lowest mark since January this year (Figure 1.5). Structural catalysts included MicroStrategy lifting holdings to 636k BTC, lawmakers proposing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and the launch of the first US Dogecoin ETF (DOJE). Market attention turned to Solana ETF filings, with major issuers expected to file in October. CME confirmed plans to list Solana and XRP options, while the CFTC proposed tokenised collateral for futures. Policy momentum stayed positive as Powell’s dovish tone and the White House Crypto Council’s backing of a market structure bill reinforced regulatory optimism.

Derivatives remained active. BTC vols trended lower into mid-month before rebounding, with 1M implied near 35v by month-end (Figure 5.5a). ETH skew flipped between puts and calls as flows moved from upside buying early in the month to defensive positioning ahead of expiry (Figure 5.2b). The September expiry cleared roughly $17bn BTC and $5bn ETH open interest, with max pain near $110k and $3.8k. Basis stayed firm around 7–8% annualised (Figure 3.4a), while funding remained positive for BTC (Figure 3.3). Traders sold downside BTC and ETH puts around $100k and $3.8k strikes respectively, while call buying re-emerged into Q4.

By month-end, crypto had digested ETF speculation, legislative headlines, and expiry dynamics. Spot remains consolidative, vols have reset lower, and positioning is cleaner heading into Q4 amid Fed easing and heavy macro risk.