Contents

Summary
1. Performance
   1.1 Top 10 Coins by Market Cap
   1.2 Returns by Timezone
   1.3 BTC Monthly Returns Matrix
   1.4 BTC and ETH monthly returns YTD
   1.5 Fear-Greed Index
   1.6 BTC dominance
2. ETF Flows
   2.1 Aggregate BTC ETF Flows
   2.2 BTC ETF Flows in November
   2.3 BTC ETF Share by Product
3. Basis & Funding Rates
   3.1 CME Futures Basis (Monthly)
   3.2 CME Futures Basis
   3.3 OI-Weighted Funding APR
   3.4 Futures Basis
4. Liquidity, Volumes, Liquidations
   4.1 Total Derivatives Volume
   4.2 Perpetual Futures Liquidations
5. Options
   5.1. BTC and ETH Put/Call Ratio
   5.2. Skew
   5.3. Risk Reversals
   5.4. Butterfly
   5.5. IV
   5.6. RV
   5.7. IV-RV
6. On-Chain
   6.1. Chain TVL Change
Appendix
Data Partners

Summary

Markets entered August in a fragile state. Trade policy dominated early headlines as Trump implemented a 10% global minimum tariff, with higher rates on surplus nations, while reciprocal tariffs from April finally went live. Equity indices traded in narrow ranges, with S&P futures oscillating near highs but unable to extend. Treasuries swung between softening labour prints and tariff-linked inflation fears, with the 10Y yield peaking mid-month into Jackson Hole, before rallying back down to 4.2%. The dollar firmed slightly into the symposium, while gold continued to rally as US tariff news before fading as exemptions were clarified. Credit absorbed tariff and geopolitical noise with resilience. Powell’s keynote struck a balanced tone, citing labour market softness but avoiding a firm September signal, leaving markets pricing ~80–95% odds of easing. Into month-end, equities and credit steadied, but yields stayed heavy.

Crypto saw two-sided trade with sharp mid-month swings. BTC climbed above $124k on 14 August before fading below $108 into month-end. ETH peaked above $4,900 mid-month before retracing toward $4,300. ETHBTC rose early on ETF and policy headlines, setting another positive month for the pair trade (Figures 1.1, 1.4). Structurally, catalysts included MicroStrategy’s expanded holdings, Circle’s Arc L1 announcement, and legislative progress with the Anti-CBDC Act folded into the NDAA. Pantera’s proposed $1.25bn Solana vehicle underscored ongoing capital formation despite volatility.

Derivatives were active. BTC implied vols drifted lower before spiking with spot rallies; 1M ranged 32–38v, while ETH fronts repeatedly cleared 70v before resetting (Figures 5.5a/5.5b). Realised vols lagged, keeping IV-RV spreads wide (Figures 5.6a/5.6b, 5.7a/5.7b). Skew swung: BTC flipped from puts to calls as highs were tested, making BTC’s call skew more pronounced than ETH’s despite lagging in returns, suggesting some defensive positioning in ETH options flow (Figures 5.2a/5.2b). CEX basis held steady around 5–10% annualised in BTC while ETH’s was more volatile (Figures 3.4a/3.4b), and perp funding stayed supportive (Figure 3.3). Options flows shifted with spot: early upside structures (120k–160k BTC calls, 4–5k ETH calls) gave way to defensive puts and calendars. Liquidations rose into the mid-month rally but remained orderly (Figure 4.2), while derivatives volumes stayed robust, including $3.3bn in a single session (Figure 4.1, source: Paradigm).

By month-end, crypto had repriced from exuberant highs back into consolidation. Macro catalysts remain front-loaded with tariffs, labour softness, and the September FOMC in focus, while crypto positioning looks cleaner after the reset.